Lottery
Why would it be inadvisable to choose a simple set of random numbers like 1,2,3,4,5, and 6?
Wouldn't the odds of any set be equal??
Wouldn't the odds of any set be equal??
posted by Ragknot at
9:44 AM
Monday, January 4, 2010
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4 Comments:
i believe that its a psychological thing. The odds are technically equal but apparently many people choose those numbers, so if they do come out you will not win much.
If people make a connection with the numbers they feel they are special or the numbers are special, they can connect cause and affect falsely, which leads to superstitious thinking. Also many people when thinking of the lottery think that it is mainly them alone and not millions of others but only know of the existence and not the significance of them.
It seems the odds would be mathematically equal ... but certainly not historically equal.
True, the probability of winning might be equal, but more people would probably have the same numbers so you would have to share with them.
Look like you guys have the answer.
Probability doesn't change but if prize splitting occurs when more than one person hits their numbers you want to select a combo of number that the least amount of people will have selected.
in this situation
EV=P*pot/n-bet
EV=expected value
P=probability of hitting
pot=prize pool of lotto
n=number of people who hit
bet=cost of ticket (non-recoverable even if you win)
minimizing n, being the only thing you can effect after buying the ticket, is in your interest.
For interest:
Lotto corporations have reported that the numbers from the series LOST are very popular.
Cam
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