One Billion Pound Raffle Part 3
Alright,
now, if the rest of the rules are the same except that this time, the marbles will be replaced, which place in line is most likely to win the One Billion Pound Raffle??
now, if the rest of the rules are the same except that this time, the marbles will be replaced, which place in line is most likely to win the One Billion Pound Raffle??
posted by James Yu at
7:28 PM
4 Comments:
First place in line...
First post, too.
Ta-Ta.
Which ever place the guy with the gun is.
Ok, there's 50 people drawing one marble each from a bag 50 marbles, (49 black, and 1 red), after they pick one, they put it back, unless of course it's red, then the game is over. Right?
Each person has a 1 in 50 chance, except for the fact that the more people drawing before you lessens your chance that the red marble has not been picked yet.
So definately the first person gets the best percentage. If he does NOT get the red marble, then the second person also has exactly the same percentage.
Even when the 50th person draws (assuming if he gets to draw, the red marble has not been picked), he will also have a 1 in 50 chance.
Even if there were 1000 people drawing, if the 1000 person gets a shot, he will also have a 1 in 50 chance.
The hard truth is IF you get a shot, then it will be a 2% shot. But the farther down the line you are, each person in front of you reduces your shot.
the guy with the biggest gun as n number of people means there is a n number of guns so the person with the biggest gun will kill everyone else and take it
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